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7
Aug

After a disappointing employment report raised fresh worries about economic weakness and the risk of deflation, investors scrambled to buy relatively safe Treasury bonds. Yields, which move in the opposite direction of price, fell to historic new lows.

The major stock indexes, however, rebounded from early declines of 1% or more to finish the day nearly unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 21.42 points, or 0.2%, to close at 10653.56. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.2% to 2288.47. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 0.37% to 1121.64. Trading volume was light, as it has been all week, which could help explain the intraday swings.

Even after small declines in recent days, the Dow ended the week up 1.79%. The blue-chip index is still 10% above its July low and is slightly positive for the year so far.

The bond market, however, has remained a picture of bearishness. The 10-year Treasury yield tumbled immediately after the release of the jobs data and never looked back, closing at 2.826%, the lowest since April 2009. The two-year yield dropped to 0.514%, the lowest on record dating back to 1973.

Treasurys are starting to revisit levels seen in the darker days of the credit crisis. They appear to be pricing in economic outcomes that are bleaker than the stock market expects, including slower growth and a greater risk of deflation, or a decline in prices that drags on economic activity.

“I don’t know how anybody can not be gloomy in this outlook,” said Dave Rovelli, managing director of equity trading at Canaccord Adams. “It’s horrible—everywhere you look the economic news is borderline horrible. We’re two years into this recession, and we’re not getting any better—we can’t even add jobs. Companies are doing well because they’ve slimmed down, but they’re not hiring.”

It could be that stock investors believe large companies will be able to keep earnings per share afloat in a slow-growth environment with buybacks, cost-cutting and exposure to faster-growing overseas markets. It could also be that the stock market is overly optimistic about the outlook, or that the Treasury market is overly pessimistic.

Most of the stock market’s gains this week came on Monday, continuing to respond to a solid earnings season and some better-than-expected data from the factory sector.

So far, however, the bulk of the economic evidence, including Friday’s employment report, has leaned toward more weakness, making the bullish case more challenging. Goldman Sachs on Friday cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth next year to 1.9% from 2.5%. Goldman cut its already-low year-end forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.5% from 3.25%.

Goldman economists also said there was a chance the Federal Reserve could open the door at next week’s policy meeting for additional stimulus measures.

The prospect of the Fed resuming purchases of Treasurys or other bonds helped punish the dollar this week, driving it down nearly 2% against the euro and more than 1% against the Japanese yen.

Crude-oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday to $80.70 a barrel, though they ended the week more than 2% higher. Wheat prices fell by 60 cents on the Chicago Board of Trade, the maximum amount allowed by exchange rules, to $7.2575 a bushel, erasing all of Thursday’s gains, after farmers released millions of bushels from storage to address a global shortage.

Category : Economy News / Financial Reviews / Forex Currency Trading

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