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26
Feb

Near-Zero interest rates are set to disappear. Last week, when the Federal Reserve increased the discount rate it charges banks for borrowing reserves, it sent an unmistakable message that era of super-low interest rates may soon be over

Although the move came sooner than many expected, it was a healthy step toward more normal conditions and a sign the banking system is healing. The Fed stressed that the move doesn’t mean any imminent rise in the more important federal-funds rate. Despite the soothing words, it’s a clear warning that near-zero interest rates won’t last forever, and that the Fed is prepared to act when necessary to raise rates.

In the abstract, this can’t be a surprise. With short-term rates near zero, and even longer-term rates the lowest they’ve been in my lifetime, interest rates really couldn’t go much lower. But the question has always been one of timing. It’s not clear exactly what the Fed means when it says it won’t raise the federal-funds rate for an “extended time.” Is that three months? Six? The Fed itself may not know for sure. But we now know it won’t be an indefinite period. The tightening cycle has begun.

This has significant implications for investors, since markets anticipate events. Assuming we are in the very early stages of a credit-tightening cycle, investors need a whole new strategy for a world of rising interest rates.

Here are some of the implications investors need to address now and over the next several months:

Fixed income:

Higher interest rates typically ravage the value of fixed-income assets like bonds. Prices seem especially vulnerable now, since so many investors have had no choice but to reach for yield in this exceptionally low-rate environment. Long-term and lower-quality bonds will be the first to experience the effects.

Foreign exchange:

Higher interest rates in the U.S. will mean a stronger dollar. (It’s already been rallying.) That means nondollar earnings from non-U.S. operations will have comparatively less value in dollar terms, as will a wide range of assets priced in dollars. As a result, investors’ current love affair with emerging markets will likely cool somewhat, although robust growth will help compensate.

In short, the low-interest-rate, high-liquidity, high-inflation strategies that worked so well last year have likely run their course. Taking their place will be traditional growth assets, especially stocks that will benefit from a robust economic recovery in the U.S., such as industrial cyclicals and consumer-discretionary stocks like the ones I recommended two weeks ago. And there’s good news in higher rates, too: Money-fund rates, certificate-of-deposit yields and other low-risk fixed-income yields will eventually rise, boosting income for many investors.

Category : Economy News

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